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March 13, 2011

Below average maize yields expected southern African 4 countries

The present document provides a preliminary forecast of crop yield expected at the end of the
current growing season. Forecasts are provided from halfway the growing season (70 growing

Although at that time the most critical stages of crop development have passed, the final
outcome may still be subject to some change depending on how the second half of the season
proceeds. Our forecasts are updated with the most recent satellite data available and distributed
through email on a personal subscription basis every ten days.


The FAST crop yield forecast points to below average maize yields in Swaziland (-9%) and
Namibia (-8%). However, in Namibia the picture may still change as the growing season
proceeds. In the main growing areas of Malawi and Mozambique yields are expected to fall 5-6%
below average.

A very good maize yield is expected in Lesotho (+14%). Good yields are also anticipated in
Botswana: 13% above average in the main growing areas and +6% overall. South Africa is also
doing well with an estimated +9% in the main growing areas and +5% overall.

It is noted that within the countries there may be large and contrasting differences between
provinces. Details may be found in table 2, which presents the expected yields at GAUL1 level.
Although the growing season is more than halfway in most countries, some developments may
still take place. This applies in particular to Botswana and Namibia.

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